2026/3/16 分析 · 使用者 #87c45c 提供 50 則貼文 (2025-10-27 ~ 2026-03-15)
風險分析
帳號數據
發文頻率極不均勻:2025年10月僅1則原創後沉寂近5個月,2026年3月13-15日集中爆發49則貼文。每日轉貼常集中於數小時內密集發送(如3月15日18:00-18:08連續6則RT),呈現典型的瀏覽—批量轉發模式,未見使用排程工具跡象。原創貼文僅佔4%。
發文時段分佈
時區:UTC
原創 vs 轉貼
互動數據(原創貼文平均)
資料期間: 2025-10-27 ~ 2026-03-15
AI 深度分析
@chengweilai2 帳號可信度分析報告
1. 真實性分析
此帳號大概率為真實個人帳號,而非機器人或假帳號。主要依據:
- 原創貼文具有個人特徵:[50] 公開宣示個人政治立場轉向,語氣坦率且引發32則回覆討論,顯示為真人互動。[20] 推廣自己的YouTube直播節目,提供具體的討論議題,符合台灣政治評論者的身分特徵。
- 發文時間符合台灣時區:活躍時段大致落在台灣時間的上午到深夜,與真人作息吻合。
- 無偽造專業身分跡象:帳號未宣稱特定專業背景或權威身分,主要以個人評論者角色出現。
然而,帳號的資訊價值有限——它本質上是一個「轉貼收藏夾」,讀者難以從中獲得獨立分析或第一手資訊。
2. 原創性分析
原創內容極度匱乏,這是此帳號最顯著的問題。
- 原創比例僅4%(50則中僅2則原創),其餘48則全為轉貼。
- 兩則原創貼文的性質也截然不同:[20] 是YouTube直播推廣,[50] 是政治立場聲明,均非深度分析內容。
- 轉貼來源高度集中:@Inty 貢獻了至少10則轉貼,@mubeitech 至少5則,@shanaka86 至少3則。帳號的資訊視野受限於少數上游來源。
- 無附加評論的轉貼:所有轉貼均為純RT,未見帳號主對轉貼內容添加任何個人見解、摘要或評論,進一步降低了內容的原創價值。
- 未發現明顯的AI生成痕跡,但由於原創內容極少,此項判斷的參考價值有限。
3. 利益動機分析
- YouTube頻道推廣:[20] 直接分享YouTube直播連結,帳號主經營時事評論直播節目。這構成一種自我推廣行為,但屬於公開透明的個人品牌經營,不構成隱藏商業利益。
- 政治立場公開宣示:[50] 明確表態反民進黨、支持國民黨與民眾黨。此聲明相當坦誠,但也意味著後續所有轉貼選材都可能受此政治偏好影響。
- 未發現明確的商業置入:貼文中未見推廣碼、affiliate連結、業配內容或可疑導流行為。
- 潛在動機:帳號可能透過大量轉貼地緣政治熱門內容來累積關注度,最終導流至YouTube頻道。這是常見的自媒體經營策略。
4. 操作手法分析
選擇性資訊聚合
帳號的轉貼選材呈現明顯的單一方向性:
- 反威權政權敘事:大量轉貼批評伊朗 [7] [9] [22] [36]、中國 [27] [28] [44]、古巴 [27] [35] [45] 政權的內容。
- 親美軍事行動:轉貼讚揚美軍打擊伊朗的內容 [37] [42],同時轉貼批評美國「不夠強硬」的聲音 [34]。
- 特定國際政治觀點:轉貼批評澤連斯基的長文 [21],轉貼支持伊朗巴列維王子的內容 [22]。
- 反伊斯蘭情緒:[12] 轉貼一段帶有明顯反穆斯林傾向的英文長篇演說。
這些轉貼本身不一定是錯誤資訊,但當一個帳號系統性地只選擇單一方向的內容,讀者需要意識到自己接收的是經過篩選的資訊流。
情緒放大效應
帳號傾向轉貼語言最激烈、情緒最飽滿的版本。例如同樣是報導美軍轟炸哈爾克島,帳號選擇的 [42] 使用了「火光沖天」「只剩一片焦土」「彻底拆除」等極度戲劇化的描述。[40] 中「他妈滚出去」的街頭對峙敘事、[27] 中「趕快放下武器向人民投降」的呼籲,都屬於情緒濃度極高的內容。
發文節奏特徵
3月15日18:00至18:08之間連續轉貼6則 [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7],顯示典型的「滑手機批量轉發」模式。這不是自動化工具的特徵,而是真人快速瀏覽時間軸並逐條轉貼的行為模式,但也意味著轉貼時未必經過深思熟慮的篩選。
總結
@chengweilai2 是一個以轉貼為主的台灣政治評論帳號,附帶YouTube直播頻道。帳號主是真人,政治立場公開透明,但由於原創內容極少(4%)且轉貼方向高度單一,作為資訊來源的可信度偏低。讀者應將此帳號視為一個帶有明確立場篩選的新聞聚合器,而非獨立分析來源。
引用來源
RT @mubeitech: 英伟达有60个高管直接向黄仁勋汇报。 但他拒绝跟任何人一对一开会。 商学院教材觉得这简直疯了。 黄仁勋算了一笔极度现实的账。 当一个CEO直管60个人时,公司瞬间蒸发了七个管理层级。 没有私下谈心。 没有闭门绩效反馈。 下属工作搞砸了,他直接在60人的大会上公开复盘。 职场里所谓的一对一私下沟通,本质上全是在照顾员工的自尊心。 黄仁勋不买这个单。 批评就是最高效的学习。 凭什么你犯了错,这免费的一课只能由你一个人听? 一个人搞出了尴尬,这60个人全都得跟着长记性。 他坦白自己一半的时间也是错的。 但在众人面前把试错逻辑推演一遍,所有人立刻就能掌握决策的思考路径。 绝对的信息平权。 没有人拥有内部特权。 更不会有人在茶水间散布“老板私下跟我讲”的废话。 砸碎大企业病的最好办法,就是彻底剥夺各级主管囤积信息的权力。
RT @BreakingAlert_: 伊朗女足队长扎赫拉·加班巴里已撤回在澳大利亚的庇护申请,计划返回伊朗。 她是继亚洲杯期间申请庇护后改变决定的第五名队员。此前共有7名球员及工作人员提出庇护申请,但大多数人随后撤回了申请。目前仍有2名球员留在澳大利亚,庇护申请可能获批。
RT @__Inty__: 德国高级外交官、前北约情报主任阿恩特·弗赖塔格·冯·洛林霍芬遭遇钓鱼攻击——一条伪装成"Signal客服支持"的虚假消息诱使其输入账户PIN码,导致其Signal账号被盗。 攻击者随后利用该账号向其众多高层联系人发送恶意链接。 讽刺的是,这位曾任德国联邦情报局(BND)副局长、著有《普京对德国的攻击》一书并在书中专门提及俄罗斯网络攻击的前情报官员,竟落入了最基础的网络钓鱼陷阱。 消息来源:《明镜》周刊。
RT @EricLDaugh: 🚨 SHE SAID IT PERFECTLY: "Have you ever noticed that every single time there is a terrorist attack linked to Muslims, which is 99% of the time, we are immediately told about the 'peaceful Muslim majority?'" https://t.co/wz5nZtop7d "I want to ask a serious question. What is this 'mostly peaceful majority' DOING about the minority that keeps killing people?!" "Like, what are they doing? Are they speaking up about it at all? Because, you know, the attacks keep happening in different cities, different countries. Same words, Allahu Akbar." "And we keep being told that, oh no, this has nothing to do with ideology, nothing to do with the religion, nothing to do with the belief system behind Islam. Really?" "Because let's think about it for a second. Have you ever seen someone exploding themselves, k*lling women and children in public, and then screaming, you know, Christ is king? I've never seen such thing." "And I am sure if this ever happened, all of us Christians would come up and be so against it." "We would condemn it. Like, we would be so loud that something like that would probably never happen again." "How much longer are we going to accept being told that just having common sense and seeing things for what they are makes you a bigot? Because the longer we refuse to tell the truth, the more innocent lives are going to be lost because of this nonsense!"
RT @30R9gmaMUy3guDJ: アブレイユが逆転3ランホームラン ベネズエラが6回に逆転 伊藤大海が逆転3ランHRを浴びる... 【6回】侍ジャパン5-7ベネズエラ まだ2点差!再び反撃したいところ @MLBONFOX #侍ジャパン
RT @nexta_tv: Wow! In Russia, even those we least expected are starting to revolt! The Kremlin has even pissed off popular Russian blogger Victoria Bonya. "What kind of country is this? They've shut down the internet, Instagram, Telegram! We need to wake up society!" she says. Lucky for Bonya, she lives in Monaco — in Russia, you can actually get prison time for saying that.
RT @shanaka86: JUST IN: The father thought his son was unfit. The IRGC installed him anyway. And the legitimacy deficit is now being paid for with drones aimed at the server farms that run the war. CBS News reported hours ago, citing US intelligence shared with President Trump, that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had documented misgivings about Mojtaba succeeding him. The assessment: Khamenei perceived his son as “not very bright and unqualified,” suffering from unspecified “personal life issues.” The man who ruled Iran for 35 years did not want his son to inherit. The IRGC overrode a dead man’s wishes because it needed a face, not a leader. Khamenei was killed 28 February in a 60-second coordinated strike that also eliminated seven top security officials. Mojtaba survived, wounded: legs fractured, left eye bruised. He was installed 8 March after the IRGC pressured the Assembly of Experts. At least eight members boycotted. He did not attend his own succession rally. His first statement was read by a television anchor. No voice. No video. The Iranian ambassador said he believes Mojtaba is “in the hospital.” Iran’s third Supreme Leader is a wounded man his father considered unqualified, installed by a military organisation that needed a clerical stamp on a junta already governing. The IRGC’s power rests on Mojtaba’s personal “Habib Ring,” alumni from his 1986 Iran-Iraq War battalion service now embedded across IRGC intelligence and Basij command. Personal loyalty substitutes for the theological authority he does not possess and the public legitimacy he cannot demonstrate because he cannot appear on camera. The legitimacy deficit produces the escalation incentive. A regime that cannot show its leader must show its capability. On 1 March, Iranian drones struck two AWS data centres in the UAE directly and damaged a third in Bahrain. Thirty-eight services went offline in the UAE, 46 in Bahrain: EC2, S3, DynamoDB, Lambda, RDS cascading to Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Emirates NBD, Careem, Hubpay. AWS confirmed “prolonged recovery” and began migrating workloads. Ten days later, Tasnim published approximately 30 additional targets: Google, Microsoft, Palantir, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle across the Gulf and Israel. The connection between the succession crisis and the compute strikes is the thesis nobody else is articulating. The IRGC installed a figurehead whose authority derives from a military network, not theology. That network must demonstrate operational relevance. Traditional force projection has been destroyed by 15,000 strikes. What remains is the $20,000 to $35,000 Shahed that can reach a data centre housing the Palantir Ontology platform, the system that compressed the US kill chain from weeks to hours and generated 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours of the war. The IRGC is not striking data centres because they are convenient. It is striking them because the AI inside those buildings killed the Supreme Leader, identified every target the campaign has hit, and will locate the nuclear programme inside Pickaxe Mountain. The compute is the enemy. The Shahed is the only weapon that can reach it. And the junta needs footage of burning server farms to prove to 88 million Iranians that resistance continues. Saudi Arabia committed $40 billion to AI infrastructure in February. The AWS strikes introduced a risk premium that did not exist before 1 March. Microsoft confirmed zero hits on Azure, but Tasnim names Microsoft’s facilities alongside the AWS centres already struck. The gap between “not yet hit” and “on the target list of the organisation that hit AWS” is the repricing event every sovereign wealth fund is calculating now. The father did not want his son to lead. The military installed him because it needed a stamp. The stamp cannot appear on camera. And the military is compensating with the only weapon it has left: a drone cheap enough to build under sanctions and aimed at the AI infrastructure winning the war against it. https://t.co/eMrt5qYYst
RT @AlfRib15: @visegrad24 This is the biggest proof that Russia passed the technique on to Iran. Only Russia and Ukraine had this level of use of fiber optics for attacks.
RT @visegrad24: BREAKING: Iranian proxy groups have started using fiber-optic FPV drones. This video shows such a drone attacking Camp Victory at Baghdad International Airport
RT @Kurdistan_AR: الحرب على إيران ستكون على مراحل. نحن في المرحلة الأولى، قريبآ سندخل إلى المرحلة الثانية. الكورد لا يريدون المشاركة في الحرب لأنهم يعتبرونها ليست حربهم، في حال إستمرار تمادي ميليشيات إيران فسيكون هناك خطوات عملية على الإرض في جنوب وشرق كوردستان.
今天的直播,我們來討論:伊朗的戰爭很可能會演變成第三次世界大戰?目前的世界離世界大戰還缺少什麼條件?台灣國會藍白擋預算擋對了?!https://www.youtube.com/live/RemL-ltlxrk?si=sR5gzWdD6yc7MRuk
RT @IuliiaMendel: Ukraine is a parliamentary-presidential republic, not the other way around. This means the main power in the country lies not with the president, but with the parliament — that is, the legislators. Of course, you probably had no idea about this, and you’d be hard-pressed to name even one of the several hundred Ukrainian parliamentarians. Naturally, every Ukrainian president has tried to consolidate a vertical of power bordering on authoritarianism. Before Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this tradition was largely unsuccessful, though each of his predecessors managed to achieve something. Zelenskyy’s success in strengthening the power vertical became possible thanks to two things: extreme populism and Russia’s full-scale invasion. The first harbinger of problems wasn’t even the 2019 presidential election, but the parliamentary one a few months later. The people were so convinced by Zelenskyy’s performance — that he would “beg Putin on his knees” to achieve peace, and that, being as tired of corruption as every Ukrainian, he wouldn’t steal — that they handed him all the cards to fulfill these promises. They gave him the largest faction in the history of the Ukrainian parliament: 254 seats. For the first time in independent Ukraine, this created a single-party majority (monobільшість), meaning there was no need to consult anyone else — they could vote for whatever they wanted. This mandate of extreme trust Zelenskyy should have used to combat corruption and end the war. As his former officials and team members admit, he had everything needed for that. However, Zelenskyy on stage in front of cameras is one thing; Zelenskyy in the office without fanfare is quite another. A staunch hedonist who bristles at any criticism and values money and fame above all else… He tried to use the people’s gift for personal enrichment and entrenching his power. I know as I worked as his press-aide for two years. Before the war, though, he achieved little. Yes, his administration significantly disrupted the course of reforms; yes, he managed to set up important corrupt schemes. But institutions still held, and various forces in the state prevented him from going too far.Then came 2022. While Putin’s missiles rained down on Ukrainians, Zelenskyy was already approving the first schemes… April 2022… Right after Bucha… The war gave him an opportunity to consolidate power like no president before. Anyone who opposed him faced criminal cases, reputation destruction, even prison terms or persecution — including people’s deputies, who, remember, are the main figures in our political system. He hides behind the Constitution when it suits him, yet abuses it at every step. Just look at the rounding up of citizens on the streets, borders closed for the fifth year running, the overreach of powers that no president in the country is supposed to have. Everything is justified by the war and the terrible Putin. Putin’s aggression is truly indefensible. But he is not responsible for creating corrupt flows that rob Ukrainian soldiers of weapons, uniforms, and food, nor for manipulating the Ukrainian Constitution. For me, Zelenskyy’s guilt in provoking this war, in mismanagement, and in prolonging it is obvious. As soon as the war is over his political career will end too and there will be no one to stand for him. What to do? I’ll remind you: we are a parliamentary-presidential republic. The Ukrainian parliament already showed its strength in the crisis year of 2014, when it managed to take power, organize elections, and choose the path of reforms. Today in Ukraine a political crisis continues that you won’t read about in international media. Yet MPs are already flatly refusing to vote for Zelenskyy’s populist initiatives or agreements that would actually finish off the Ukrainian people. Zelenskyy’s monomajority has shrunk by nearly half; even if MPs still belong to his faction, they no longer vote for anti-state laws and openly criticize the president’s populism. Ukraine is a parliamentary-presidential republic. To understand us, perhaps it’s worth starting to learn the names of parliamentarians. Many of them will have to play a crucial role in Ukraine’s future. And don’t say you weren’t warned. You knew — you just didn’t want to accept the disappointment in the people’s hero Zelenskyy, who was never that hero. People prefer to believe in a lie rather than face the fact that they were lied to.
RT @whyyoutouzhele: 3月13日,来自台湾的博主谈在大陆重庆找工作的感受。 博主称,这里的就业环境非常的差,我找过英文老师、陪诊室的工作,但是最后面试时发现,薪资待遇和面试前谈的完全不一样,而且在重庆最多的就是销售岗位,底薪3000就已经是非常高了,大部分底薪都是1500元。 而且他们认为社保五险一金这些是额外的福利,大部分工作还都是单休。 “这些情况对一个在台湾工作了9年的我来说,是一个巨大的心理冲击”顾女士说。
RT @wangjupaian: 【悲哀!伊朗女足又有3人放弃庇护,家人被抓或家人劝回国?】 3月15日最新消息 此前在澳州寻求庇护的6个伊朗女足成员中 又有3人放弃庇护并决定返回伊朗 目前仅剩3人继续申请政治庇护 看下面这位澳洲政府顾问的福克斯采访 她欲言又止——唉! 或许能推测,这批回国球员 她们回国不仅仅是因为家人被威胁 不少人也可能是家人劝回去的 家人或认为西方不可靠 庇护意志不坚绝 是留不下来的 极权体制对个人的控制 往往伴随一生难以摆脱的压力 此前首位反悔者 21岁球员佐尔菲(Mohadeseh Zolfi) 在获得澳大利亚签证不到24小时后改变主意 她在与已经离境的队友通电话后 主动联系伊朗大使馆要求回国 她的离开导致其余6名成员的安置地点暴露 澳大利亚方面随后紧急转移剩余人员 刚刚最新报道显示 又有3名成员离开庇护所 其中包括两名球员和一名后勤人员 她们当晚前往马来西亚 与已返回的队伍汇合准备回国 官方说法称她们是“自愿回国” 但外界普遍担忧 其留在伊朗的家人可能面临政府压力或报复 伊朗方面则指责 澳大利亚和美国“绑架并诱导”这些球员申请庇护
RT @shanaka86: Iran built a military designed to fight without a head. Now it cannot stop fighting because the head is gone. The Mosaic Doctrine divides the IRGC into 31 autonomous provincial commands, one per province, each with pre-delegated authority, local weapons stockpiles, independent decision-making, and sealed orders that activate upon central command failure. The doctrine was formalised after the Iran-Iraq War for one purpose: ensure that the decapitation of Iranian leadership does not stop the Iranian military from fighting. It was designed to survive exactly what happened on 28 February. The Supreme Leader is dead. His successor cannot stand. The defence industrial base is rubble. The communication infrastructure that would transmit a ceasefire has been degraded by 15,000 strikes. And the 31 commands are still firing. Not because someone is ordering them to fire. Because the doctrine orders them to fire until someone orders them to stop, and the someone who would order them to stop is in a hospital bed issuing written statements through a television anchor. The Quds Force overlays the Mosaic with a second network: the proxy architecture. Hezbollah in Lebanon launches hundreds of rockets at Israel. The Houthis in Yemen attack Red Sea shipping and fire at Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Iraqi PMF militias, Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, strike American bases in Iraq and Syria. The coordination flows through secure fibre-optic lines, satellite backups, encrypted applications, and physical couriers carrying cash and operational directives. Funding: $100 to $350 million annually through tunnel smuggling, cryptocurrency wallets, and Hezbollah intermediaries. The proxies have hit American diplomatic facilities. A missile struck the US Embassy helipad in Baghdad. Two Iranian drones hit the US Embassy compound in Riyadh, starting fires. A drone struck near the US Consulate in Dubai. The Kuwait Embassy closed under threat. Three to four verified diplomatic incidents across the region, each producing limited damage but each crossing a line that has governed international conflict since the 1961 Vienna Convention: you do not strike embassies. And then Hamas, the proxy Iran armed and funded for seventeen years, issued a public statement asking Iran to stop targeting neighbouring countries. The organisation that started the war the Mosaic Doctrine is now perpetuating told its patron to stand down. The Axis of Resistance is arguing in public for the first time since its creation. The fracture reveals the Mosaic Doctrine’s fatal design flaw. The system was built for survival, not termination. It ensures that 31 commands continue fighting after decapitation. It does not contain a mechanism for 31 commands to simultaneously stop. Each command fires under sealed orders with local authority. No central node can broadcast a ceasefire because the central node was the target of the first strike. The doctrine that makes Iran impossible to defeat also makes Iran impossible to negotiate with because the entity that would accept terms does not control the entities that would implement them. Hezbollah fires because its orders predate the ceasefire that does not exist. The Houthis fire because their funding pipeline operates independently of any command they would obey. The Iraqi PMF fires because the militias answer to local commanders who answer to a Quds Force whose leader is in a bunker. And the 31 provincial commands fire because the doctrine says fire and nobody with authority has said stop. The war’s most dangerous feature is not what Iran can still launch. It is what Iran can no longer recall. The machine was built to run without an operator. The operator is gone. The machine is running. And the off switch was never installed because the doctrine’s designers believed the machine should never be turned off. https://t.co/eMrt5qYYst
RT @shanaka86: BREAKING: Trump just invited China to send warships to protect the waterway China is using to replace the dollar. Read his Truth Social post carefully. It is the most strategically loaded sentence of the war. “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated.” The invitation is a trap. Every possible Chinese response damages China. If Beijing sends warships, it legitimises an American-led coalition, subordinates Chinese naval power to US command architecture, and abandons its diplomatic neutrality with Iran, the country currently offering China yuan-only passage through the Strait that everyone else is locked out of. China loses its shadow fleet advantage, its discounted Iranian crude, and its CIPS leverage in a single deployment. If Beijing refuses, it confirms what Washington wants the world to see: that China is willing to let the global economy burn rather than contribute to the security of the waterway that carries 45% of its own crude imports. Every nation paying $96 a barrel while China pays less through yuan-settled shadow fleet deliveries will note who showed up and who did not. The free-rider narrative writes itself, and America writes the next chapter of dollar dominance with it. Trump named six countries. Five are allies or partners: Japan is signing Golden Dome in five days, France operates from Djibouti, the UK from Bahrain, South Korea has direct Hormuz energy exposure. Their participation is expected. China’s participation is the question, and the question is the weapon. While 16 million barrels of Iranian crude have transited to China since 28 February through shadow tankers settling in yuan, while CIPS processed $24.5 trillion in 2025 at 43% growth, while Iran offered to reopen the Strait exclusively for yuan cargo, Trump posted a sentence that forces China to choose between its shadow economy and its public legitimacy. The post also contains an admission that no briefing has delivered. “We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are.” The President of the United States just acknowledged that total military victory does not equal total waterway security. Iran’s military is destroyed. The coastline is not. A defeated nation with a 33-kilometre shoreline, $500 mines, and $20,000 drones can deny passage through the world’s most important chokepoint indefinitely because the weapons of denial are cheaper than the weapons of dominance. “In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline.” Bomb the coast. Shoot the boats. And hope that six nations send warships to escort tankers that have no insurance, no P&I coverage, and no private-sector willingness to transit a waterway the President himself admits a defeated nation can still threaten. The coalition call is not about Iran. Iran’s military is destroyed. The coalition call is about the world that emerges after Iran. If America escorts the tankers alone, the Strait reopens under American control and dollar pricing survives. If a coalition escorts them, the Strait reopens under international consensus and the yuan-for-Hormuz proposal dies. If nobody escorts them, the Strait stays closed and China’s shadow fleet is the only commerce moving through it. Trump is not asking for help. He is asking every nation to declare which monetary system they want the Strait to operate under when the war ends. The warships are the ballot. The Strait is the polling station. And the currency is the vote. Full analysis in the link! https://t.co/eMrt5qYYst
RT @ChinaTruth: 我就服古巴人民,行动太快了 已经占领了古巴共产党总部, 并且还一把火给烧了。 古巴共产党还是投降太慢了!让人民失去了耐心。 中共看到了吗?在中国人民还没失去耐心之前,赶快放下武器向人民投降。解散共产党,解除党禁、报禁、全国举行大选,权力还于人民,再奉告中共的大小官员,把贪污腐败的钱还回来,缴枪不杀,这样也可以给你们这些党徒留下一条生路!
RT @22HomoPoliticus: 伊朗尽管有网络封锁,但伊朗年轻人跟国际社会接轨程度很深。有人将之归结为伊朗的现代化教育成就,实际上是意识形态洗脑教育失败造成的,并不是伊斯兰共和国政权主动放弃了洗脑教育。加上缺少社会出路,年轻人与神权国家之间的鸿沟变得越来越不可弥合。 相比之下,中共政权不但持续对每一代年轻人长达数十年洗脑教育(1990年代在“爱国主义教育”名义下进行过系统化的洗脑教育改造),近年还出现了反生活西化热潮。 中共政权用很多方式将年轻人紧紧抓在手里,不仅其社会控制更加高效,还使年轻人相信依附政权可以获得奖赏和竞争优势。 但中国也存在自己的困境:生育率大跌和失业率高涨促成一种奇怪的悖论——年轻人口既不足又过剩。生育率不足使一些人担心未来年轻人无法承担领导社会变革的重任,而失业率高涨又使一些人对年轻人起来反对国家抱有不切实际的期望。 为什么说不切实际呢?因为中国年轻人群体即使跟国际接轨,也表现出保守倾向,即使一些国际议题同样在中国最时髦的年轻族群之间流传,但这种国际接轨多少有些变味了。甚至可以说是跟国际议题完全颠倒过来,比如你说“MeToo”,他攻击“田园女拳”。 中国年轻群体中间保守倾向十分突出,即使一些标榜进步左翼的青年群体也有明显的保守倾向,对自由化持敌视态度,不管是不是出于自我审查,这些人对西方世界的价值观念持矛盾态度。更何况中国社会在攻击“白左”的时髦标签下,不断排斥、疏远和架空西方普世价值观念——即使有一部分人自以为自己是普世价值的信奉者,他们也存在相当多认知矛盾。比如他认为人人生而平等,但你要扯到移民和宗教问题,他就不见得真的支持人人平等了,甚至反而要主张限制迁徙自由。又比如他经常把民主当成神圣不可侵犯的理想追求,但开口就要将一切“白左”赶尽杀绝,有些议题你甚至碰都不能碰,一碰就是“黄左”。哪怕同样有保守化倾向、同样反对马列主义意识形态的群体,如果在支持或反对美国领导人的问题上存在丝毫分歧,也一样逃不过被扣“黄左”帽子的命运。这显然是普世价值被架空现象。 中国社会的普遍保守倾向是一种非常不好的信号,意味着锐意进取、追求改变现状的人越来越少,守旧心态与日益增长的不满情绪同时存在就像一种自我折磨。 这种畸形的社会环境就像配合政权的专制手段堵死了所有社会出路,如果不能重新解放思想,释放反叛精神和自由活力,人的困境和社会困境只会互相加深,且始终看不到社会出路。 (视频来源:@ 庆谈(抖音)
RT @Yaita_Akio: 今天日本政壇出現了一個讓人關心的畫面。首相高市早苗在國會出席眾議院預算委員會時,被媒體拍到長時間坐在位子上沒有站起來,神情顯得有些疲憊。據報導,當時她似乎一度難以起身,不少大臣和工作人員圍在她身邊關心情況,現場氣氛一度顯得有些緊張。這個畫面也被媒體拍下來,在日本網路上引起不少討論。 隨後日本政府方面表示,首相可能出現感冒等身體不適,因此提前結束部分公務,回到官邸休息。從目前公開的信息看,應該只是暫時性的身體狀況,但仍讓不少人感到擔心。 高市首相上任後曾提出一句很有名的口號:「工作、工作、工作、工作再工作。」可以看出她對國政的投入和責任感。這種態度確實令人尊敬,但也無形中給自己帶來了非常大的壓力。她本人過去也說過,常常每天只睡兩到四個小時,在如此高強度的節奏下,身體難免會吃不消。 看到今天的情況,也讓人想起她最尊敬的政治前輩安倍晋三。安倍在政治生涯中曾兩次因健康問題辭去首相職務,分別是在2007年和2020年。對很多支持者而言,那都是非常遺憾的事情。日本政治史上,領導人因健康原因中途退場的例子並不少,因此外界對首相的健康格外關心。 對台灣而言,高市首相的角色也相當重要。她長期主張深化台日合作,在安全、經濟與價值理念等問題上態度明確。最近台灣行政院長卓榮泰訪問日本,被認為具有一定外交意義,而日本方面能夠安排相關交流,也被認為與高市政府的支持有關。 在今天印太局勢快速變化的背景下,台日之間的互信與合作越來越重要。日本的穩定領導,也關係到整個地區的局勢。 因此,看到今天的新聞,很多人的想法其實很簡單:希望首相只是短暫疲勞,能夠好好休息、早日恢復。畢竟,日本需要一位健康的領導人,而台日關係的發展,也同樣期待她繼續努力推動。
RT @AimenDean: Look, yesterday I said there was maybe a 25% chance that this war could end with the use of tactical nuclear weapons to obliterate Iran’s 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, the amount that could theoretically produce about 11 nuclear warheads. That was the doomsday scenario. But today, after watching how things are unfolding, I think there is another path emerging, it has a 50% likelihood! What I would call the mother of all deals. Here is my thinking. If you want the Islamic Republic to give up its 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, you need leverage. Real leverage. Something the regime cannot live without. And that leverage has a name: Kharg Island. For those who don’t follow oil logistics, Kharg Island is not just another island in the Gulf. It is Iran’s economic jugular. Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports leave the country through that island terminal. Millions of barrels per day. It is, quite literally, the golden goose that lays the golden eggs for the regime. Now imagine the following scenario. The US military already this morning neutralised the island’s defences, the naval units guarding it, the missiles, the air defenses, the IRGC garrison. Now that umbrella is gone, Kharg becomes what strategists call a sitting duck in the Gulf waters, literally. 🦆 And then comes the strategic move: seize the island with all the oil facilities intact. Because the facilities are the bargaining chip. And once you have that island, the negotiation becomes very simple: “You want your island back? Fine. Hand over the 460 kg. Every gram. Not one kilogram missing. Then you get your oil terminal back.” It’s brutal leverage, but in strategic terms it’s actually kind of genius. Trump basically taking the Ayatollahs’ golden goose, pointing a literal gun at its head, and saying: “Give us the highly enriched stuff… Or I will blow up the stuff out of the goose.” Now of course the Ayatollahs could respond with bravado. They could say: “Fine. Keep the island. We’ll survive. We’ll continue to harass the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll endure.” .. in fact, they might start bombing the island themselves to target US forces there, but then they risk damaging the very thing they could very soon depend on for survival cash!💰 So what you get is a standoff. An island. A nuclear stockpile. A lot of very tense bargaining. Trump on one side. The Ayatollahs on the other. And everyone playing a very uncomfortable mind game of who blinks first. Honestly, the whole thing sounds less like traditional strategic geopolitics and more like a script from “Lost” 😅 except the scriptwriters themselves are lost.😵💫 But if you ask me (and this is just my opinion, my own calculation looking at the board right now) this scenario is no longer a mere possibility. If I were a betting man, I would say this is now the most likely outcome. 50% probability. The war turning into a very strange standoff over a small island in the Gulf - an island that happens to control 90% of Iran’s oil exports and might end up deciding the fate of 460 kilograms of uranium. I personally prefer this option. It’s less bloody and more predictable.
RT @bingyuicejade: 好友的女儿MIT毕业,在科罗拉多博尔德市一家叫“鲍尔航空航天技术公司"工作,几个月前辞去工作。我问好友为什么?她说女儿觉得这家公司制造杀人武器,她不想参与战争伤害人类,所以辞去工作。 昨晚半夜看到新闻,发现了美军2月28号对伊朗一所小学进行攻击的导弹残骸,上面写着鲍尔公司制造。 作为科罗拉多人感到很痛心,原以为这家公司研究航天卫星发掘宇宙奥秘,原来制造杀人武器。 作为人类感到很痛苦,168位无辜儿童因战争失去生命。
RT @laozhouhengmei: 两年前就预测到美国会打伊朗的姜学勤分析: 为什么川普已经骑虎难下,无法TACO。 如果川普现在拍拍屁股留下这个烂摊子,海湾国家是无法保护自己的,伊朗会不断轰炸他们。 美国走后,伊朗会向海湾国家收取霍尔木兹海峡的通行费和保护费。海湾国家会从华尔街撤走投资,并向支付伊朗赔偿金。 伊朗会逐渐重建,五年十年后成为中东霸主,威胁所有的海湾国家。 所以如果川普现在TACO的话,海湾国家会从华尔街撤走所有的投资,美国经济会崩溃。 因此川普不能TACO。
RT @mubeitech: 古巴变天,可能就在这一夜。 马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)正在创造历史。 这位古巴裔的美国国务卿,被爆出正与哈瓦那的高层进行绝密对话。 对话名单里,甚至包括劳尔·卡斯特罗的孙子,“劳利托”。 国务院没承认,但也拒不否认。 这种沉默,往往是惊雷的前奏。 古巴独裁者迪亚斯-卡内尔今天低头了。 他公开承认:正与川普政府进行“严肃且敏感”的谈判。 这是 1961 年古巴革命、经济全面国有化以来,这个岛国最大的松动。 作为谈判的“见面礼”,古巴政府在梵蒂冈的斡旋下,刚刚释放了 51 名囚犯。 但这背后的推手不是祈祷,而是生存压力。 三个月的石油禁运,已经让古巴彻底瘫痪。 全国大范围停电,粮食短缺,抗议者走上街头。 哈瓦那的老迈独裁者们终于意识到,苏联早就没了,委内瑞拉正在垮台。 现在的古巴,只有两个选择: 要么抱着僵化的教条一起沉没,要么向华盛顿妥协。 这不仅是卢比奥的胜利,更是平民主义地缘政治的一次教科书式降维打击。 不发一兵一卒,用极限经济施压,直接敲开共产主义在西半球最后的一块硬骨头。 当一个政权开始释放政治犯并谈论“开放”时,它通常已经没法回头了。
RT @whyyoutouzhele: 近日,一位伊朗裔英国记者表示:“从今早起床以来,我所做的每一件事在伊朗都可能让我入狱。 每一件事:从出门不戴头巾,到在户外听我想听的音乐,再到此时此刻正在和你交谈。 所有这一切都会让我被关进监狱。还有我在社交媒体上关注的那些特定账号。 所以,我没有资格代表伊朗表达我想要什么,但他们(伊朗人民)值得拥有和我们一样的权利,以及那些最基本的自由。 他们想要一个世俗、民主的国家。”
RT @Adam65207241: 美国终于找到应对伊朗“廉价无人机战”的廉价解决方案了! 美军已向中东部署约1万架Merops拦截无人机。 每架初始造价约1.4万美元,大批量生产后可降到3,000–5,000美元。 伊朗的策略很明确:用2万美元左右的Shahed自杀无人机,逼美国动用400万美元一发的爱国者导弹拦截。这种“以小博大”的经济消耗战让美国吃不消。 现在换成3,000美元一架的Merops去猎杀2万美元的Shahed,性价比完全反转。 美国犹豫了半年,终于开始抄乌克兰的作业了。虽然晚了,但总比不抄好。 这场中东冲突,正在把“无人机战争”的经济逻辑彻底摊牌——谁先把单位杀伤成本打到极低,谁就掌握了可持续作战的主动权。 乌克兰的血泪经验,正在以最现实的方式“援助”美国,而这或许是2026年最讽刺的地缘政治反转之一。
RT @Kenntnis22: 意大利司法系统长期饱受批评,瓜姐要推动司法改革,她对自己的反对者讲话: 哪怕你反对本届政府,也要投票支持司法改革。你讨厌本届政府,明年大选可以用选票更换政府(但司法改革影响深远)。如果你反对司法改革,你不但在大选之前扳不倒我,还要继续忍受糟糕的司法系统。
RT @mubeitech: 房地产经纪人就是职业骗子? 一个讽刺房产交易黑幕的视频正在全网疯传。 买家想买房,中介说:我帮你联系对方中介,他再联系卖家,卖家回话给他,他再传话给我,最后我告诉你。 买家问:这事我自己不能办? 中介答:理论上行,但你没有“谈判筹码”。 所谓的筹码,就是凭空捏造一个不存在的“竞标者”。 房子挂了一个月没人看,你一出价,中介立马说有人竞标,逼你加钱。 你问竞标者是谁?不知道。 对方出多少?不能说。 对方是不是真人?保密。 你出价越高,中介拿的佣金就越多。 这不叫专业服务,这叫合谋分赃。 哪怕你只跟他聊了四分钟,他转头就能抽走 5 万美元佣金。 更讽刺的是,中介会安慰你:别担心,这钱是卖家付的。 实际上,羊毛全出在溢价成交的买家身上。 在传统精英构建的交易围墙里,规则就是用来收割普通人的。 这种依靠信息差生存的寄生虫模式,还能撑多久? 华盛顿的官僚和这些开着路虎的中介一样,都在靠吸食纳税人的血汗维持体面。 现在的美国人已经看清了,这根本不是什么市场机制,这就是一场合法的诈骗。
RT @7warroom: 纽约地铁刚刚爆发了一场最硬核的对峙。 一名土生土长的波多黎各裔纽约人,在车厢里指着亲巴勒斯坦示威者的鼻子痛骂。 “如果你恨这个国家,就他妈滚出去。” 没有精英阶层的温良恭俭让,只有底层劳工阶层的怒火。 为什么这个视频能在24小时内引爆全美? 因为他撕开了建制派不敢碰的疮疤: 24年前,当世贸中心轰然倒塌时,是谁在巴勒斯坦的大街上发糖庆祝? 是谁在欢呼雀跃,庆祝美国平民的死亡? 结果24年后,这群人的支持者却举着旗帜,占领了纽约的街道。 这就叫“农夫与蛇”的现实版。 长期以来,左翼精英用“多元化”和“包容”作为挡箭牌。 他们要求纳税人容忍那些敌视美国价值观的人,甚至资助那些公开仇恨美国的人。 但这名纽约男子说出了真相: “他们那是仇恨,我们是为了城市而战。” 言论自由不是单行道。 如果极端主义者可以利用自由来摧毁自由,那么守护家园的人为什么还要保持沉默? 当一个国家的保护者被要求“礼貌”,而破坏者却在肆意妄为。 这个国家的根基还剩多少?
RT @BreakingAlert_: 以色列情报机构摩萨德向伊朗民众发出波斯语信息,呼吁他们拍摄巴斯基民兵检查站的画面,并将视频发送至摩萨德的 Telegram 账号。摩萨德表示,空袭将随后跟进。
RT @mubeitech: 川普刚刚发布了轰炸伊朗哈尔克岛的现场画面。 火光冲天。 那是伊朗原油出口的命脉。 全毁了。 没有预警,没有漫长的外交辞令,只有直接的打击。 哈尔克岛承载了伊朗 90% 的原油出口。 现在那里只剩下一片焦土。 这是对德黑兰最直白的警告。 多年来,这些石油收益被用来资助代理人战争和中东动乱。 华盛顿的战略变了。 不再是蜻蜓点水式的制裁,而是物理意义上的切断财路。 汤姆·霍曼和鲁比奥的组合已经表明了态度。 如果你继续挑衅,代价就是你的经济引擎被彻底拆除。 平民主义的外交逻辑很简单:别拿美国纳税人的耐心当赌注。 现在的德黑兰必须在生存和对抗之间做个选择。 国际原油市场正在剧烈波动。 白宫的轰炸机已经返航,但哈尔克岛的火还没有熄灭。
RT @wangzhian8848: 中国汉化最严重的民族,比如壮族,满族,都没有什么民族矛盾,当然他们也没有什么存在感。其实壮族的人数最多,但基本只有名义上的少数民族概念了。 中国目前的民族矛盾,集中于蒙族,维族,藏族,三个民族。其他民族都太小,或者没有自己比较成熟的语言文字,缺乏悠久的历史和文化认同。 但这三大民族不同。他们的共同特点是全都有过强大的国家,像蒙族在境外目前还有蒙古国。藏族和维族历史上国家存在时间都非常长。而且,这三大民族都有强大的宗教并存于文化认同中。 中国的民族团结促进认同法,其实就是针对这三大民族的。 中国的逻辑是,只有完成文字,语言,直到最后的文化认同,才能彻底解决这三大民族的问题。相反,承认民族自治,民族差异,这条路彻底走不通了。 这是对中共建制以来民族政策的最彻底的一次反动。
RT @mubeitech: 古巴独裁者米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔刚刚向全国宣布: 古巴政府正正式与美国进行秘密谈判。 这层窗户纸捅破得非常突然。 卡内尔在讲话中搬出了“革命领袖”劳尔·卡斯特罗挡箭,试图证明这场交易的“合法性”。 但在哈瓦那街头,谁都听得出这背后的虚弱。 为什么是现在? 因为高压锅快炸了。 2026年的古巴,通货膨胀已经让普通家庭买不起一块面包。 能源系统彻底崩溃,全国大停电成了家常便饭。 哈瓦那的高墙,挡不住饥饿,更挡不住民众对川普政府“极限施压”政策的恐惧。 卡内尔在讲话中提到了奥巴马时代的“美古破冰”。 那是一场彻头彻尾的缓兵之计。 当时华盛顿送去了美元和笑脸,换来的却是古巴军方资产阶级的加固。 但现在的白宫,已经不是当年的华盛顿精英俱乐部。 这一次,美国手里握着铁锤。 边境被封锁,汇款渠道收紧,古巴政权失去了最后的输血泵。 迪亚斯-卡内尔口中的“寻求对话”,在平民主义视角下,更像是最后的讨价还价。 这不是对等外交,这是破产前的清算。 国际社会那些所谓的“推动力量”,在坚定的制裁面前正迅速散去。 如果古巴不进行根本性的政治转型,任何对话都只是独裁政权的临终喘息。 共产主义在加勒比海最后的堡垒,出现了一道深不见底的裂纹。 现在的悬念不在于谈什么,而在于这个摇摇欲坠的体制还能撑过几个夏天。 哈瓦那的旧时代正在加速落幕。
RT @Martinnkaaaa: #Animation #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar Animacja Ukraińskich działań na przełomie lutego i marca 2026 roku na Zaporożu. Animacja wedle mojej koncepcji z użyciem WJ bez wyszczególnienia pododdziałów. No i udało mi się to nad czym ostatnio mocno pracowałem .
RT @raycat2021: “大富翁”游戏的来历很有讽刺性。 一个反资本家的想法,最终被资本家商业化了。 揭露垄断者偷窃的游戏,最后还是被垄断者偷窃了。 拥有超10亿玩家的“大富翁”(Monopoly)是史上最有名的游戏之一,发明者是一位左翼活动家。 1903年,伊丽莎白-玛吉痛恨美国的土地垄断问题,她需要唤醒劳工阶层的觉悟。 经济学理论太枯燥,她于是发明了“地主游戏”,有“垄断”与“繁荣”两种模式,希望以此来揭露垄断如何制造苦难。 前者不断买卖地产,收取租金,通过对手破产来取胜。 后者模式中土地由所有玩家共同拥有,通过分享财富取得共同繁荣。 玛吉申请了专利,游戏很快在进步群体和校园中流行开来。 游戏的垄断模式很有魔性,让对手破产是一件开心的事。 而繁荣版本就没人玩,人们不在乎什么反垄断理念。 1932年失业的销售员查尔斯-达洛发现了这里的商机。 他“剽窃”了这个游戏(改编/简化),只保留下垄断模式。 然后以上百万美元的价格卖给了帕克兄弟公司。 帕克兄弟为了防止玛吉告他们剽窃,以500美元买下了玛吉的专利。 帕克兄弟就是后来著名的游戏巨头孩之宝Hasbro,这个游戏给公司赚了几十亿美元。 玛吉则在贫寒中去世。
RT @IuliiaMendel: True patriotism demands realism: exploring negotiated settlements, however imperfect, to preserve what’s left of Ukraine’s sovereignty and economy. https://iuliiamendel.substack.com/p/the-eus-90-billion-lifeline-for-ukraine
在台灣政治問題方面,我已經清楚的看出民進黨在2028年的總統大選和2026年的地方政府選舉必然慘敗。因此我在這裡聲明,下次大選我不會支持民進黨,總統大選我將支持國民黨。另外,我十分看好台灣民眾黨的未來發展,在地方政府和立法委員選舉上,我將優先考慮民眾黨籍的候選人。