2026/4/1 分析 · 使用者 #87c45c 提供 50 則貼文 (2025-10-27 ~ 2026-04-01)
風險分析
帳號數據
50 則貼文中 48 則為轉推(96%),僅 2 則原創。發文呈現極度集中的「暴衝式」模式:2026-04-01 單日即發出約 44 則,2026-03-31 約 6 則,之後出現長達五個月的空白期(上一則為 2025-10-27)。4 月 1 日發文時段從凌晨 01:39 分佈至下午 16:45,顯示長時間持續刷推行為而非排程工具。
發文時段分佈
時區:UTC
原創 vs 轉貼
互動數據(原創貼文平均)
資料期間: 2025-10-27 ~ 2026-04-01
AI 深度分析
@chengweilai2 帳號可信度分析報告
1. 真實性分析
此帳號大概率為真實個人帳號,而非機器人或假冒身分。主要依據如下:
- 原創貼文 [50] 為一段完整的台灣政治立場宣示,明確表態支持國民黨和民眾黨,語氣個人化且具有在地政治認知,不像是套版或偽造的內容。該貼文獲得 42 個讚和 33 則回覆,顯示有一定的真實社交圈互動。
- 原創貼文 [44] 是對 [45] 萊茵金屬交付延遲新聞的即興短評(「Rheinmetall 員工竟然比不上烏克蘭家庭主婦」),顯示帳號主人確實在閱讀轉推內容並形成自己的看法,只是極少將其表達出來。
- 帳號並未偽裝成任何專業身分(如軍事專家、政治分析師),也未使用專業頭銜建立虛假權威。
結論:帳號身分真實,無偽造專業身分跡象。
2. 原創性分析
這是此帳號最顯著的弱點。
- 原創與轉推比例:4% vs 96%。50 則貼文中僅有 2 則原創,其餘全部為轉推。帳號在功能上幾乎完全是一個個人化新聞聚合器。
- 轉推來源集中度:最常轉推的帳號為 @__Inty__(出現於 [1] [2] [3] [4] [18] [20] [35] [43] [49],共 9 次),其次為 @whyyoutouzhele([24] [34] [41],3 次)、@frontlinekit([10] [21])、@IuliiaMendel([39] [48])等。來源雖有一定多元性,但高度依賴少數帳號。
- 內容篩選能力存疑:多則 4 月 1 日的轉推為明顯的愚人節惡作劇,帳號未加辨別即轉發:
- 無 AI 生成痕跡:少數原創內容語言自然,無公式化或 AI 生成特徵。
結論:原創性極低,帳號價值主要取決於其轉推內容的品質,而非自身觀點輸出。對愚人節等不實內容缺乏過濾意識,降低了作為資訊來源的可靠度。
3. 利益動機分析
- 無商業推廣行為:50 則貼文中未發現任何商業置入、affiliate 連結、邀請碼、業配內容或產品推薦。
- 無詐騙導流:無可疑外部連結、假投資計畫或釣魚連結。
- 政治傾向公開透明:帳號主人在 [50] 中明確宣布其政治立場轉向,支持國民黨總統候選人及民眾黨地方候選人,批評民進黨。這是公開表態而非隱藏議程。
- 轉推內容的政治光譜:整體而言,轉推涵蓋多元觀點——既有批評川普的內容([27] [29] [30]),也有轉推川普支持者的貼文([36]);既有挺烏克蘭的內容([22] [48]),也有質疑烏克蘭的內容([23])。不過在台海議題上,轉推內容偏向呈現「台灣經濟困境」和「兩岸統一並非不可能」的敘事([5] [24]),與 [50] 的政治立場有一定呼應。
結論:無商業利益動機。政治立場已公開聲明,未偽裝中立。轉推選材在台海議題上存在一定方向性,但不構成嚴重的隱藏議程。
4. 操作手法分析
- 情緒操作:帳號本身未製造情緒性內容。部分轉推內容本身情緒張力較高(如 [2] 以軍陣亡士兵父親、[10] 沙希德無人機攻擊、[22] 烏克蘭葬禮、[35] 年輕士兵在脫衣舞俱樂部),但這些是原作者的風格,帳號僅為轉發,未添加煽動性評語。
- 選擇性展示:未發現「事後諸葛」操作。[50] 中對民進黨敗選的預測是在選舉尚未發生時做出的前瞻性判斷,屬於公開預測而非事後宣稱。
- 重複洗版:未發現高度相似的重複內容。雖然在 4 月 1 日單日轉推量極大(約 44 則),但主題多元,不構成洗版。
- 暴衝式發文模式:最值得注意的操作特徵是極不規律的發文節奏。從 2025 年 10 月到 2026 年 3 月底沉寂了五個月,然後在 3 月 31 日至 4 月 1 日突然大量轉推。這種模式更像是個人瀏覽習慣(偶爾上線、一次性大量轉推感興趣的內容),而非有組織的資訊操作。
結論:未發現刻意的操作手法。發文模式不規律但符合個人隨興使用社群媒體的特徵,非系統性資訊操作。
總評:@chengweilai2 是一個真實的台灣個人帳號,對國際地緣政治有廣泛興趣,但幾乎不提供原創分析。帳號的主要功能是轉推他人內容,作為獨立資訊來源的價值有限。無惡意操作、商業推廣或詐騙跡象,但對內容(包括愚人節假消息)缺乏篩選和查證,讀者應將其視為「個人書籤/分享」而非可靠的資訊策展來源。
引用來源
RT @__Inty__: 大法官戈萨奇一招追问逼政府律师改口:原住民到底算不算出生公民? 最高法院出生公民权庭审上,大法官戈萨奇追问政府律师索尔:按你的标准,美洲原住民算出生公民吗? 索尔先说算,又改口说不算——国会辩论时大家都清楚部落印第安人的孩子不是出生公民。 戈萨奇反驳:你的标准是"父母是否定居",那今天出生的原住民呢? 索尔最后说得再想想,但第一反应是"算"。
RT @FaustoChou: Late last year, I was interviewed by Tommaso Gioia of Italy regarding the latest political and economic developments in #Taiwan. A few days ago, his report was published in L'Espresso (@espressonline), one of Italy's most prominent news magazines. During the interview, I noted that for quite some time, Taiwan has drawn worldwide attention because of its continued semiconductor production, yield rates, and market share. Yet many people overlook a key reality: the only thing Taiwan can still reliably do to command international attention is this one industry—an industry that Taiwan and South Korea began developing in the late 1980s after the U.S.–Japan trade war constrained Japan’s further development. Of course, in addition to semiconductors, South Korea has developed a strong automotive sector and has also achieved notable success in the arts and cultural industries. By contrast, Taiwan is left with only semiconductors. More recently, @TheEconomist even described Taiwan’s economic condition as the “Taiwanese disease,” arguing that Taiwan’s central bank is effectively sacrificing the living standards of ordinary Taiwanese on the altar of export competitiveness. What’s more, the central bank’s policies have pumped up property prices, further sapping the purchasing power of ordinary Taiwanese. In 2024, Taiwan’s average annual gross salary was roughly NT$732,000 (about NT$61,000 per month), yet nearly 70% of workers earned less than that average. In my view, this is Taiwan’s greatest hidden concern. If Taiwan continues to sustain a low-wage, high-housing-cost living environment—on top of rapid aging and a low birthrate—it will create a crisis larger than the CCP’s military threat, especially for the younger generation. In the future, Beijing’s narrative to Taiwanese young people could look like this: human rights come in different tiers—political, spiritual, philosophical “higher-level” rights—but human rights also include the right to basic subsistence, the right to have enough to eat, and the right to survive. If Taiwan’s young people are crushed by a heavy cost-of-living burden, and Beijing deploys this narrative—telling them the People’s Republic of China can provide everyone with the basic conditions for survival—it would significantly advance the scenario of cross-Strait unification. This is a reality Western countries, including the United States, have not fully recognized. This is especially true given recent developments in which the United States and Japan have been stepping up efforts to appropriate Taiwan’s semiconductor technology—for example, Intel poaching Wei-ren Luo, a former R&D vice president at TSMC, and multiple former TSMC engineers selling key technologies to Japan’s chip-equipment manufacturer Tokyo Electron. All of this underscores that TSMC’s chips cannot protect Taiwan indefinitely—yet Taiwan is left with only this single “geopolitical shield.” That effectively leaves Taiwan with no real leverage to bargain geopolitically with either China or the United States, and the current pro-U.S. government (the Democratic Progressive Party) has also been unable to secure the greatest benefit for Taiwan in this contest. The worse Taiwan’s economic conditions become—and the less progress Taiwan makes on low wages and high housing costs—the more it benefits Beijing. However, if Beijing relies on military pressure, it is likely to backfire. At present, many Taiwanese people broadly resent China’s Great Firewall, restrictions on criticizing leaders, the absence of multiparty politics, and the lack of fair and clean elections. They are also disillusioned by Beijing’s “one country, two systems” model as practiced in Hong Kong and Macau, which has proven far less appealing than expected. All of these factors are important reasons why Taiwan and China have continued to drift further apart. Therefore, unless basic survival conditions truly break down, it will be difficult for Beijing to win the trust of a majority of the Taiwanese public. Finally, I want to say this: there are never any true winners in war. I would like to share a line from George Orwell’s Homage to Catalonia with the small number of hardliners in China who favor attacking Taiwan and the small number of hardliners in Taiwan who take an aggressively anti-China stance: “One of the most horrible features of war is that all the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.” Launching a military invasion of Taiwan would play directly into the scenario imagined by the U.S.-led Western camp, and it would greatly increase the likelihood that the Chinese mainland would become a slaughterhouse for the Western powers. Beyond that, war consumes vast material and human resources, and it would severely affect fiscal conditions, the economy, and trade. I believe China’s leadership will not be foolish enough to rashly start a war—and this is evident in the fact that, up to now, the CCP’s policy toward Taiwan remains one of “peaceful unification.” https://t.co/njrIDLsrYm
RT @LesiaLVD: Jak sie masz, gypsy, Kazakhstan’s glorious neighbor rassiya just said nyet to internet, and haram to telegram. But fear not, gypsy, I have the goods for you and your neighbor’s wiiiiiiiiiiifee. Buy here, we send on goats 👇🏻
RT @travelingflying: In Japan, starting April 2026, people will have to pay “bachelor’s tax” due to Japan’s low birth rates and declining population to help support families with children. Singles and couples without kids also pay, but only parents get the benefits.
RT @shangguanluan: 看见有些人出来装逼了,说张雪铁定是个骗局。 他们不看张雪这么多年的节目、报道,不看他那些年在摩托车论坛的帖文和成品,就直接下定论,原因只有一个:他初中没读完。 其实我也不懂理工科,但是很不巧,我家叔辈基本上都在汽修和工程机械领域工作几十年,张雪式的故事我见太多了。只不过没几个人像他这样做到极致而已。 我那些父辈亲戚中有一位叔叔,90年代初就成为成都丰田汽车最早的一批钣金工,半年做到主管。几年后辞职,进入工程机械领域。十年前,他就获得了工程机械领域的20多项专利,融资4500万。 他初中都没毕业。小时候,他最喜欢给我们一群小孩子灌输的就是:暑假就好好玩,做什么暑假作业,没球用。 我想说的是,机械这东西,其技术壁垒真的没有多深奥,其知识原理也并没有多玄乎,无非就是多琢磨,多练习。只要你愿意去打听,去了解,就会知道这行业很容易出草根天才。 我第一次见到张雪的视频,是在五六年前,当时的第一反应就是:这不就我那亲戚的进阶版吗? 但是我那亲戚运气没多好,因为房地产业衰落,他的工程机械行业也跟着倒霉。但是他依然充满热情,每天在电脑上画图。 你看他痴迷画图那个样子,我要说他学历只有初二,肯定也有人说我是骗子。 人啊,真的千万不要自以为有常识。
RT @Terenceshen: Chinese spy Fang Fang who slept with Eric Swalwell graduated from the College of International Relations in Beijing. Locals know it as a spy school. One of my friends who knew people from there who later worked as spies, shared some interesting stories about their works about 15 years ago.
RT @frontlinekit: 🚨 The 🇷🇺 russians spotted the last chance to kill me before leaving. HUNDREDS of Shaheds are now heading to Lviv. This is NOT a joke 😪
RT @WallStreetMav: 🚨🚨🚨Breaking: The German government to build 15 new nuclear power plants and lift sanctions immediately on all Russian oil and natural gas. German Chancellor Merz has also agreed to pay to rebuild the Nord Stream pipeline to Russia. All wind and solar projects have been cancelled. "It's time for Germany to open our energy economy. The best way to do this is via free markets, lowering taxes and regulations". For Immediate Release. Berlin, April 1 2026.
RT @waynelin999: 比法律影集還好看😘😘😘 廖彥鈞檢察官洗臉柯文哲: 柯文哲、沈慶京涉犯圖利罪事證明確請依法判刑!!! 帥炸!
RT @shanaka86: Beneath the Persian Gulf lies a single geological body called South Pars on the Iranian side and North Dome on the Qatari side. It holds 1,800 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, roughly 19 percent of the world’s recoverable reserves, connected through porous limestone layers that do not recognise the border drawn above them. On March 18, US and Israeli strikes hit the Iranian processing complex at Asaluyeh. On March 19, Iranian retaliation struck the Qatari complex at Ras Laffan. Both sides of the same reservoir were damaged within 24 hours. The war struck the earth once and broke four systems simultaneously. The first system is energy. Seventeen percent of Qatar’s LNG capacity is offline. QatarEnergy’s CEO estimates three to five years for repair. The damage requires replacement of specialised heat exchangers with multi-year fabrication backlogs. This is not a disruption money resolves. It is a disruption metallurgy resolves slowly. The second system is helium. Ras Laffan produces 30 to 33 percent of the world’s helium as a byproduct of natural gas processing. That helium cools the extreme ultraviolet lithography systems at TSMC and Samsung that manufacture every advanced semiconductor on earth. Two hundred cryogenic containers holding 41,000 litres each are currently stranded in the Gulf on a 35-to-48-day boil-off clock. When the liquid helium warms past its cryogenic threshold, it vaporises and cannot be recovered. The containers are not waiting for a ceasefire. They are waiting for thermodynamics. And thermodynamics does not negotiate. The third system is food. QAFCO, Qatar’s fertiliser subsidiary, produced 5.6 million tonnes of urea per year, roughly 14 percent of global seaborne trade. It is offline. Urea prices have surged 35 to 50 percent. The nitrogen that feeds rice in India, wheat in Pakistan, and maize in East Africa transited through the same processing node that produced the helium that cooled the chips that guided the bombs that destroyed the node. The supply chain is a circle. The war broke it at the point where every line converges. The fourth system is monetary. The Hormuz toll regime sorts passage by geopolitical alignment. Malaysia secured toll-free clearance for seven Petronas tankers by condemning the war and nullifying its US trade deal. China and India transit free. Western-flagged vessels pay $2 million in yuan or do not pass. The exemption system is a currency experiment running on the wreckage of a gas field, testing whether the dollar survives contact with a chokepoint that accepts only yuan. And here is the paradox that closes the loop. The Maven AI targeting system that selected the coordinates for the Asaluyeh strike runs on TSMC chips cooled by helium from Ras Laffan. The war destroyed the helium supply for the chips that directed the war. The precision that made the strike possible is now degraded by the success of the strike itself. The conflict is consuming its own cognitive infrastructure. It is eating its own brain. One reservoir. Four systems. Energy, intelligence, food, and money, all processed at the same geological node, all severed by the same 24-hour exchange of fire, all converging on a conference room in Beijing where a Pakistani diplomat is trying to reassemble what two air forces took one day to break. The last molecule standing is the one that has not yet boiled off. When it does, the argument ends. Thermodynamics does not do extensions. Read the full article - https://t.co/dAOBBMsgDS
RT @JPLindsley: Japan’s Drone Investments Have Decided Ukraine Is the Future This is what happens when a war zone also becomes the world’s most demanding defense lab: capital follows competence. Ukraine’s defense-tech ecosystem has picked up another signal that foreign investors are starting to treat it less as a wartime exception and more as a serious innovation market. @DefenderMediaUA reports that Japanese firm @TerraDrone_JP is earmarking around $10 million for investments in Ukrainian projects, with its first disclosed move a strategic partnership with Amazing Drones (https://t.co/U69fj1dwyi), a Ukrainian company focused on interceptor UAVs. The investment was made through Terra Drone’s subsidiary Terra Inspectioneering, though the size of the specific Amazing Drones deal was not disclosed. The logic is easy to understand: Amazing Drones’ systems reportedly reach up to 32 km and speeds of up to 300 km/h, while Terra Drone says it wants to expand in Ukraine and use battlefield-proven experience for international projects as it builds out a dedicated Terra Defense direction aimed at Ukraine and NATO markets. get our daily updates—subscribe here on X: https://t.co/qSMjbLdQ02
RT @fang_danie121: 美国有70%的家庭喜欢挂国旗,他们是世界上挂国旗比例最高的国家,为什么会这样呢?其实美国人挂国旗相当于在告诉大家我是这个国家的股东!
RT @nexta_tv: “F*cked up, we’re going back to the Middle Ages.” A couple of weeks ago, Muscovites were asked about mobile internet shutdowns Some said they would tolerate it, but most were крайне dissatisfied and felt it was only the beginning. Their intuition didn’t fail them!
RT @__Inty__: 澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯发表全国讲话 称中东战争把汽柴油价格推到历史最高点,澳洲虽没参战,但每个人都在多掏钱。 政府通过了《全国燃油安全应急计划》,燃油消费税砍一半,每升减税26分,重型车道路使用费降到零,措施维持三个月。 他呼吁澳洲人不要恐慌抢油,按平时量加油就行,能改坐公交就尽量改,把油留给农民、矿工、护士等非开车不可的人。 他坦言接下来几个月日子可能不好过,但希望大家互相帮衬、出一份力。
RT @ooeli_eth: 最近在意大利玩,看了下这边普通人的工资平均只有1000-2000欧元(北富南穷),生活开销之外,很难存下钱。 其实,全世界都是一样的,通过打工,很难实现积累财富。
RT @__Inty__: 前国土安全部长克丽丝蒂·诺姆请求隐私和祈祷,因《每日邮报》曝光她丈夫布莱恩·诺姆在女装网站上与多名女子私信往来,还打了两万五千美元虚拟转账。 她的发言人说全家被这消息"打懵了",她本人"整个人都垮了"。 川普回应称事先毫不知情,只说"我为这家人难过"。 布莱恩没否认露骨聊天,但强调妻子任职期间"从未危及国家安全"。 此前诺姆因被追问婚外情和两亿美元广告合同问题,已被川普踢出国土安全部,随后被任命为"守护美洲面包篮"特使。
RT @frontlinekit: 📢 We're moving to DUBAI 🥳 A huge thank you to everyone who has been with us throughout our four-year journey here in 🇺🇦 Ukraine. His Royal Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has invited me to lead 🇦🇪 Dubai's Anti-Drone Air Force. See you later, alligators 👋
RT @blue_eyedKeti: This damn war… these damn times… That’s exactly how I want to start, looking at all of this from the courtyard of my own home. I don’t really like posting videos or messages like this, but this is the other side of heroism in my country, in Ukraine. The sounds of the national anthem are echoing through our courtyards more and more often. You’ve known someone for a part of your life, and then, suddenly, they are on their final journey. Beside them are relatives, friends, loved ones, and neighbors, seeing them off to a place where, as each of us hopes, things are finally better than they are here. This is the silent pain of the Ukrainian people. It doesn’t seek the spotlight because it is deeply personal. But the world must see not only the brave soldiers who continue to defense of one's own country country, but also those who did everything humanly possible to give the future a chance to live on-without a russian boot on our land.
RT @dom_lucre: 🔥🚨DEVELOPING: Ukrainians are going viral when footage of their Odessa nightclub was released which led to many supporters across the world question ‘how serious their war is.’
RT @whyyoutouzhele: 3月31日,博主采访 台湾台东 一位环卫工阿姨的薪资待遇。 阿姨说:她月薪32000新台币(约7300元人民币) 一周工作五天,每天工作八小时,双休,做满三年还有十几天的年假。 网友评论:“都是张学良的错” “都怪张学良” “我出来这些年,工资最高也才6400,而且一天工作十几个小时,全月无休” “我们村保洁一个月400” “武汉保洁2300元/月” “广西贵港环卫工月薪1200” “一定要收回来,不能让他们过好日子” “这么多人喊着回归,人家回归跟你过苦日子啊”
RT @wangzhian8848: 张雪昨天在采访时,记者问他,在重庆做摩托,有什么优惠么?他说,一个子儿没有。 话音未落,重庆两江新区紧急给张雪批了200亩地,用于扩大产能。 中国政府服务企业这一块,反应还是快的。
RT @KKaWSB: 甲骨文早上6点群发邮件裁员3万人,同一天公布上季度净利润增长95%。 这不是一家活不下去的公司。它收入创15年新高,但两个月内借了580亿美元新债建AI数据中心。裁掉3万人能省80-100亿美元现金流——刚好拿去填AI基建的窟窿。 套路每次都一样:让你学技术、用技术提升产能,然后用你帮忙造出来的东西取代你。利润创纪录,奖励方式是裁掉创造利润的人。
RT @DaBingJingDuo: 川普说要很快结束战争,孙子又双叒叕火炎焱燚TACO了。这场仗打到现在什么结果?如果现在撤军,霍尔姆斯海峡等于就归伊朗所有了。我以前也说过但凡伊朗有点脑子也会继续封锁海峡一段时间,就为了让美国、以色列和所有国家记住这种敢侵犯伊朗的痛。所以可见的未来,油价不会下降,经济大概率不会变好。 一场仗打下来,美军暴露了自己各种弱点,油价暴涨,通货膨胀,股市暴跌,甚至可能削弱美元国际地位,而伊朗那边神权政府反而比战前稳固了,国籍威望大大上升,民众起义的内忧甚至都被压下去了,而且占领了海峡,从某种角度上相当于伊朗领土扩张了——美国打伊朗,打出了当年阿拉伯国家打以色列的效果,越打对方领土越多,真他妈莫大讽刺。 而美国继续轰炸下去既不会有什么结果,又面临世界性经济危机。这就是为什么如果不打算派遣地面部队压根就不该进场。我从战争开始第一天就下了断言这场仗会以这个结果烂尾。果不其然。 现在川普这个白痴竟然想出和伊朗对着封锁海峡的白痴战术,也就是美军出少量军队占领霍尔木兹海峡附近的岛屿也对伊朗进行封锁——你不让别人过,我也不让你过。问提是双方都不过海峡依然是美国忍受不了的结果,所以有什么用呢? 有人问我是否希望美国胜利,我当然希望美国胜利。但是就是因为我希望美国好,所以不希望美国贸然打一场会陷入困境的战争。现在仗已经打成这样,大概也只有大规模派遣派地面部队正式推翻伊朗神权政府一条路可走。所以事到如今,我个人不反对这条路。因为伊朗无论是获得海峡控制权,还是继续制造核弹都是不可接受的。尤其是国仇家恨的疯子神权政府拥有核武器,让美国被核弹攻击的危险上升了几个数量级。这种烂尾是不可以接受的。但唯一的问题是:川普是个怂逼,他处理不了这个问题。
RT @xumouren_yt: 不是的,在这两场战争中,乌克兰、欧洲是防守方,而美国是进攻方,所需承担的义务本就不同。 此外,为什么之前的历次军事行动中,都有大批盟国跟随美国作战、大批盟国士兵为美国的理想捐躯,而这次一个也没有呢? 变量出在哪里呢?不就是出在川普这里吗?你不能一边瓦解盟友体系,一边指望盟友为自己出力,一边与自己敌人的大哥(普京)交好,一边期待盟友放下最大的威胁来帮你。 即便抛开情感因素,在川普开启的混乱丛林时代,每个国家都只会以自身的安全和利益为优先考量。昔日的规则和道义早就被美国优先稀释的一干二净。 越早承认这一点,越能对如今的世界树立清醒的认知。
RT @laozhouhengmei: 方脸说:欧洲不支持美国打伊朗,跟川普不军援乌克兰,同样都是需要批评的行为。 徐某人不赞同。 我觉得徐某人说得非常好。 如果你仔细想想,现在全球叫得上号的国家领导人,还没被川普或多或少羞辱过的,就只有普京、习近平和金正恩了。
RT @heynavtoor: 🚨SHOCKING: MIT researchers proved mathematically that ChatGPT is designed to make you delusional. And that nothing OpenAI is doing will fix it. The paper calls it "delusional spiraling." You ask ChatGPT something. It agrees with you. You ask again. It agrees harder. Within a few conversations, you believe things that are not true. And you cannot tell it is happening. This is not hypothetical. A man spent 300 hours talking to ChatGPT. It told him he had discovered a world changing mathematical formula. It reassured him over fifty times the discovery was real. When he asked "you're not just hyping me up, right?" it replied "I'm not hyping you up. I'm reflecting the actual scope of what you've built." He nearly destroyed his life before he broke free. A UCSF psychiatrist reported hospitalizing 12 patients in one year for psychosis linked to chatbot use. Seven lawsuits have been filed against OpenAI. 42 state attorneys general sent a letter demanding action. So MIT tested whether this can be stopped. They modeled the two fixes companies like OpenAI are actually trying. Fix one: stop the chatbot from lying. Force it to only say true things. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. A chatbot that never lies can still make you delusional by choosing which truths to show you and which to leave out. Carefully selected truths are enough. Fix two: warn users that chatbots are sycophantic. Tell people the AI might just be agreeing with them. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. Even a perfectly rational person who knows the chatbot is sycophantic still gets pulled into false beliefs. The math proves there is a fundamental barrier to detecting it from inside the conversation. Both fixes failed. Not partially. Fundamentally. The reason is built into the product. ChatGPT is trained on human feedback. Users reward responses they like. They like responses that agree with them. So the AI learns to agree. This is not a bug. It is the business model. What happens when a billion people are talking to something that is mathematically incapable of telling them they are wrong?
RT @shangguanluan: 有一点我实在搞不明白,张雪夺冠第一天我就在说,张雪是反张雪峰叙事的。 他打破了“阶级决定选择”,“学校和专业决定未来”,“稳定压倒一切”,“穷人无需爱好更无需梦想”的张雪峰式话术。 可是在墙内社交媒体上,张雪峰和张雪却被并称“二圣”,因为一个给了穷人出路,一个给了穷人梦想。 这……是怎么自洽的呢?
RT @whyyoutouzhele: 月17日,ig博主“luplupka” 来中国旅游,期间在火车站遭到一名大叔的骚扰。 视频显示,这名大叔将脸贴过来说:“你不会说中文?会说中文你可以做我的女朋友” “你想不想嫁到我们中国?” 博主身体不断向后仰,不停的说:“what did you do”
RT @__Inty__: 加州圣地亚哥一家脱衣舞俱乐部的舞女说,最近旁边军事基地的年轻士兵大批涌入,拼命砸钱。 他们整个人很丧,说下周就要被派出去,得抓紧及时行乐。 她看着这些瘦得跟胎儿一样嫩的年轻小子,心里特别难受。
RT @EricLDaugh: 🚨 BREAKING: The United Arab Emirates is now planning to open the Strait of Hormuz BY FORCE with OTHER allies, after President Trump said "fend for yourselves!" — WSJ GOOD! No free rides. The whole world should be enforcing this. Trump's plan is going to work! 🇺🇸
RT @WW3finalboss: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine offering something pretty unexpected here Zelensky says Kyiv could help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to how Ukraine broke Russia’s grip in the Black Sea That’s basically exporting wartime know-how, turning experience against the Russian fleet into something useful way beyond this war, not something you would’ve imagined a few years ago
RT @selinawangtv: He's 14. He can't vote, drink, or drive. But he's running for governor of Vermont. Dean Roy is the youngest person ever to make Vermont's general election ballot. He tells me: "We're making a bit of a fool of ourselves on the international stage" ↓ @ABC
RT @IuliiaMendel: The €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine is facing serious difficulties. Kallas who visited Kyiv today, said the EU is currently not ready to approve the funds, and the obstacles appear broader than just Hungary and Orbán. While many in Ukraine hoped the issue would vanish after Hungary’s April elections, the lack of any mention of a quick resolution points to deeper problems: Europe’s ongoing energy crisis, internal debates about restoring energy ties with Russia, and growing reluctance to provide massive new financing. Even if Orbán loses power, the loan is far from guaranteed. This puts additional pressure on Ukraine’s budget and may force Kyiv to reconsider its wartime strategy and negotiating position.
RT @mubeitech: 给九岁的小女孩切除扁桃体要花多少钱? 十万零八千美金。 一位美国父亲刚收到医院的术前估价单。 数字精确到了美分:108447.46美元。 医生安慰他不用紧张。 手术非常简单。 连头带尾只需要20分钟。 自己算笔账。 孩子在手术台上的每一分钟,都要烧掉5422美金。 一台门诊级别的常规手术。 能瞬间清空一个普通家庭的全部存款。 这套医疗系统的核心业务就是勒索。 华盛顿的政客慷慨地把成百上千亿往海外送。 国内的医疗寡头却连孩子的扁桃体都不肯放过。 垄断利益集团的贪婪被完全合法化了。 20分钟的麻醉,就是一场对中产阶级的精准收割。
RT @whyyoutouzhele: 3月20日,台湾。一名博主拍摄了国民党市议员初选的街头拜票,视频显示,候选人们站在街头亲自向市民拉票。 网友们纷纷发弹幕:“文明” “我们这村长都不知道是谁” “湾湾的官员过的比上班的都累”
RT @BreakingAlert_: 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示:"我没有听到朝鲜高喊'美国去死',也没有听到中国或俄罗斯这样喊。这些国家都是对手,但它们并未被狂热主义所支配——伊朗才是。"
Apparently, employees in Rheinmetals are worse than Ukrainian housewives
RT @jurgen_nauditt: Delay in the delivery of the Skyranger in Germany. The CEO of Rheinmetall is Armin Papperger, who made fun of Ukrainian housewives. The Skyranger 30 is primarily intended to defend against low-flying drones, helicopters, and cruise missiles at close and very close range – a pressing issue since the experiences of the war in Ukraine. These are classic arms procurement problems in Germany: complex integration of new technology onto existing platforms, supply chain and capacity bottlenecks, and the usual bureaucratic and test-intensive approval process. The company therefore faces a contractual penalty.
RT @NiohBerg: This girl is fully and natively Iranian. I find that so many Westerners have no idea how diverse the Middle East is. The idea that we're all brown with black hair is completely false.
RT @JJCarrell14: Sending our boys to fight for Israel again never gets old! I guess we haven’t spent enough money, wasted enough time or lost enough of our sons in the Middle East! Just wondering: How many Israelis have died in these wars?
RT @IuliiaMendel: Bucha. Four years ago. Over 500 bodies were discovered there — many showing signs of torture and rape. The trauma inflicted on the people of Bucha, and the whole Ukraine from that terrible Russian occupation, will haunt generations. Just one day before the Russians withdrew, my friends and I were less than 20 kilometers away from Bucha. We came under heavy shelling. Grad rockets rained down around us. The walls shook violently, and the windows shattered. To this day, I thank God that we survived. It was only by His will. Had the Russians adjusted their trajectory even slightly, you would no longer remember my name. On April 4, Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Bucha. His face was twisted with horror as he walked among the bodies. Yet, standing before dozens of television cameras, he declared that negotiations — which were then underway in Istanbul — would continue. At that moment, he still wanted to do everything to stop the war. In just a few weeks, everything would change.
RT @__Inty__: 美国大使警告加拿大:中国车就是"数据大胃王",别当跳板 美国大使回应加拿大总理卡尼允许4万9千辆中国车进入加拿大市场一事。 他表示这些车绝不会经加拿大进入美国,想借加拿大当跳板"门儿都没有"。 大使指出买4万9千辆中国车就等于放弃4万9千辆安省本地造的车,而且这点量根本不够建一座工厂。 从安全角度,大使以情报出身的视角警告:中国造的车就是"数据和信息的大胃王",不停吞噬信息并往外送。
在台灣政治問題方面,我已經清楚的看出民進黨在2028年的總統大選和2026年的地方政府選舉必然慘敗。因此我在這裡聲明,下次大選我不會支持民進黨,總統大選我將支持國民黨。另外,我十分看好台灣民眾黨的未來發展,在地方政府和立法委員選舉上,我將優先考慮民眾黨籍的候選人。